France has a nuclear umbrella. Would its European allies be able to toe the line? This is an increasingly salient question as Europe confronts new security challenges today, not least about Russia. France uniquely competes in the continent’s defense strategy as one of only a few European nuclear powers.
This atomic umbrella would deter adversaries from launching any attack on their allies as a means of retaliation, knowing that the attack could lead to a nuclear response. That premise has been a significant theme of contemporary dialogue on European security, not least as specific member states voice worries about the United States’ reliability as a security partner.
Historically, France has pursued a policy of strategic independence first established by President Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s. He also believed the U.S. was a friend, but its interests were different from France’s. That foresight has proved vital as Europe adjusts to a complicated geopolitical situation.
France currently possesses some 300 nuclear warheads, which may be launched by aircraft or submarine, while the UK has some 250. The main difference is that the French arsenal is entirely sovereign and developed independently, while U.K. capabilities depend upon U.S. technology.
President Emmanuel Macron recently proposed that France has a nuclear umbrella deterrent could extend to protect other European nations. The suggestion has become controversial, and some politicians worry it will lead to the sharing of nuclear capabilities.
However, French authorities say the nuclear deterrent will not be shared, while these weapons themselves remain under French control. Instead, the debate is over whether France’s nuclear umbrella can directly extend to other European nations, strengthening Europe’s security architecture.
Context: France’s Nuclear Umbrella
The problem of the French bomb is, however, that of a nuclear umbrella that caps the whole of Europe. Traditionally, French atomic doctrine has been oriented toward defending its own “vital interests,” which have always been vague. This vagueness is a strategic decision, as it keeps deterrence credible. However, the contemporary geopolitical landscape, especially the threat from Russia, has sparked interest in whether the French nuclear umbrella would extend to its European partners.
Previous efforts by European nations to discuss having to rely on France’s nuclear capabilities have been hampered by a wish to preserve confidence in U.S. support via NATO instead. However, recent events, including changes to U.S. foreign policy, have led countries like Germany to rethink their position. A potential European defense strategy that is more muscularly integrated and perhaps even, under the right conditions, sheltered under the French nuclear umbrella is now more seriously being entertained.
A Nuclear Umbrella: Possible Consequences
If European allies were to be included under France’s nuclear umbrella, several significant implications would ensue:
Strengthened Security Cooperation: Nations within France’s nuclear shield may experience heightened security cooperation, fostering more potent alignments between European countries.
Strategic Deterrence: A unified nuclear deterrent could be an impactful deterrent against potential aggressors, particularly Russia, which has expanded its military potential by including a visible atomic deterrent.
Political Implications: The proposal to extend France has a nuclear umbrella may also have political consequences, potentially prompting European nations to work more closely together on defense.
Operational Concerns: Both sides have held talks on how this nuclear umbrella would work. This includes placing French nuclear-armed aircraft in allied nations or creating airfields for rapid on-premise response in emergencies.
Redefining Nuclear Doctrine: France may need to redefine its nuclear doctrine to explicitly state that defending its European allies is among its “vital interests.” This could increase trust and confidence among European nations.
The Future of France’s Nuclear Umbrella
So, as the debate rages on, it is inevitable that France has a nuclear umbrella. Would it encircle its European allies in any case? The answer may hinge on a changing security landscape in Europe and the willingness of countries to work together more closely. Countries that once had cool attitudes about arms sales, like Germany and the Baltic states, are now interested.
Finally, the French nuclear umbrella of deterrence and defense may well be too small for its allies. The challenges Europe faces may lead to the renaissance of a collective security system that would pave the way for France’s nuclear umbrella to cover all European states.
